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It is unlikely to be resolved quickly even if the markets keep rallying and China economy keeps global growth ticking. Data paints a murky picture, but supports brokers' analysis that the bid from long-only money managers is absent. Allocation analysis from data firm EPFR shows a broad downtrend, especially to U.S.-domiciled China funds. EPFR figures show allocation to China funds outside the U.S. has increased for two years and mainland markets' recent performance has also been encouraging. "Our reservations about China's long-term investment prospects are based on our outlook for returns to capital."
Market focus has shifted to inflation and the outlook for monetary tightening in recent weeks as fears around banking stocks receded and a market measure of volatility (.VIX) fell to its lowest level since November 2021. Cash funds saw outflows of $65.3 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR data. Bond funds recorded inflows of $4.6 billion, while investors sold $2.6 billion of global stocks and pulled $70 million out of gold funds. Last week data showed U.S. consumer prices rising in March, while data this week showed signs of the labor market cooling. "Core inflation in big economies remains stubbornly high," the BofA analysts said, adding that inflation is being aided by structurally low unemployment rates.
LONDON, April 21 (Reuters) - Investors cut their cash holdings for the first time in eight weeks, while shedding equities and gold in the week to Wednesday, according to a report from BofA Global Research on Friday. Cash funds saw outflows of $65.3 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR data. Bond funds, meanwhile, recorded inflows of $4.6 billion, while investors sold $2.6 billion of global stocks and pulled $70 million out of gold funds. Emerging market debt funds saw their first weekly inflow in 10 weeks of $600 million. Investors put $2.3 billion into emerging markets equities, the biggest inflow in four weeks.
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Investors have moved $538 billion into cash funds over the past eight weeks as they pulled money out of bank deposits after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, according to Bank of America figures released on Friday. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and another mid-sized lender called Signature Bank sent shockwaves through markets in the middle of March, and called into question the safety of U.S. bank deposits. BofA's analysts said the catalyst for the big move into cash had been $500 billion in outflows from commercial bank deposits over the past five weeks. Central bank interest hikes have pushed up the yields on short-dated debt and MMFs, making them look more attractive to investors. BofA said $3.9 billion flowed into stocks in the week to Wednesday, and $500 million went into gold funds.
[1/2] U.S. dollar and Euro bank notes are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, in this illustration picture taken May 7, 2017. In Europe, investors put 17.7 billion euros ($19.35 billion) into euro-denominated money market funds in March, Refinitiv Lipper data shows, when the Credit Suisse crisis rocked markets. Other analysts said it was due to the fact that euro money market funds are underdeveloped relative to U.S. funds and are focused more on private sector, particularly bank, debt. WHAT IS A MONEY MARKET FUND? The European money market fund sector is far smaller than in the United States.
First quarter 'dash for cash' largest since early 2020 -BofA
  + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Flows into cash of $60.1 billion in the week to Wednesday were down from $142.9 billion the previous week, but the quarterly dash for cash was the biggest since the first quarter of 2020, BofA said on Friday, citing data from EPFR. Markets have gyrated wildly this month following the collapse of U.S. regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and Europe's Credit Suisse (CSGN.S). "Panic, flush, unwind, then Fed blinked and off we rally into April," BofA said in the report. If year-to-date inflows of $37.4 billion continue at the same pace through 2023, it would be the largest annual inflow on record. For the week to Wednesday, gold funds attracted a net $500 million, and bond funds a net $2.3 billion.
REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File PhotoCash funds saw a “huge” inflow of $112.7 billion in the latest week, BofA said, citing EPFR data. Inflows into cash for the first quarter of 2023 are on course to be the highest since the second quarter of 2020, BofA said. Meanwhile, equity funds saw a “tiny” weekly outflow of $26 million, and investors pulled $2.3 billion from bonds and put $600 million into gold. The turmoil in markets has spooked investors, but BofA said equity flows had been unchanged week-on-week and there was “no equity capitulation”. There was a “flight to quality” in fixed income according to BofA, with $9.8 billion poured into Treasuries - the largest weekly inflow since May 2022.
Cash funds saw inflows of $68.1 billion, BofA said citing EPFR data. Investors ditched equities and gold, which tends to suffer in an environment of rising real interest rates. Such a credit event could originate from the "Anglo-Saxon real estate" sector which has been hit by higher rates, the BofA analysts wrote. Bonds saw inflows of $8.4 billion, while global stocks recorded outflows of $7.4 billion and investors pulled $900 million out of gold funds. Investors meanwhile shed $1.8 billion in emerging market debt and bought $2.4 billion in emerging market equities.
So far traders are optimistic, comforted by an initially small pace of bond sales and a predictable structure. U.S. and UK central banks have started QT, although the Bank of England was forced to delay its plans following turmoil in British bond markets last year. said DZ Bank's head of government bond trading Dalibor Jarnevic. If APP reinvestments stop before the end of 2024, ECB market presence would rely on reinvestments under the more flexible Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Whatever the size or pace, traders are seeking opportunities as the ECB makes the shift to QT.
REUTERS/Lisi NiesnerLONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Global investors have allocated $354 billion to cash since Russia's invasion of Ukraine first shook global financial markets in February 2022, according to data released by Bank of America on Friday. The price shock forced central banks to hike interest rates, clobbering stock and bond markets in the process. Since February 2022, investors have pulled $135 billion from bond funds, BofA said, citing figures from financial data company EPFR. Investors have become more positive at the start of 2023, especially about bonds, even as the Ukraine war drags on. Flows into bond funds continued for the eighth straight week last week, BofA said, at $4.9 billion.
Companies have announced about $175 billion worth of planned stock buybacks so far this year. This year will likely be the first with at least $1 trillion in completed S&P 500 company buybacks, said Howard Silverblatt at S&P Dow Jones Indices. ▸ GM (GM) just inked an exclusive deal for the hottest product in automaking: Semiconductors. The strong dollar is hurting multinationalsThe rip-roaring dollar cut deeply into the earnings of multinational companies selling their wares overseas last quarter. “We got hit with that.”McDonald’s (MCD) and 3M (MMM) also said in earnings reports that they were worried that the strong dollar would affect future sales.
The oil major's announcement was followed last week by Meta Platforms Inc (META.O), the parent of Facebook which last week unveiled a $40 billion buyback. So far in 2023, 78 companies have announced buybacks compared with 125 companies as of this time last year, according to EPFR TrimTabs, which tracks announcements by companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and American Stock Exchange. ** S&P 500 companies are expected to have completed $220 billion in buybacks during the fourth quarter of 2022, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. ** Buybacks have contributed 3.7% to S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth for the fourth quarter, according to data from Credit Suisse as of Friday. The buyback index fell 12.7% in 2022 versus a 19.4% drop for the overall S&P 500.
Optimism on Chinese stocks soars to five-year highs
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Active foreign fund managers put $1.39 billion into mainland Chinese stocks in the four weeks ended Jan. 25, EPFR data showed. Active money managers are more involved with picking portfolio investments, while passive money managers tend to follow stock indexes. At the time, a few institutional investors had said it was time to buy Chinese stocks due to Beijing's emphasis on stability in a politically important year. He said inflows were also less aggressive when it came to U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. Pinduoduo , Baidu and Bilibili were among the U.S.-listed Chinese stocks that saw the largest inflows, the report showed.
Equity funds got a $16 billion injection while bonds saw inflows of $7.8 billion, BofA said citing EPFR data, as investors showed conviction in both asset classes. In another sign of investors' confidence that global inflation may have peaked, cash funds saw $300 million in outflows, while gold funds logged outflows of $1.3 billion. Investors bought $7.3 billion of investment grade bonds and shed $1.6 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities - the 23rd week of outflows from the inflation-sensitive bonds. Tech names wrapped up their tenth consecutive week of outflows, although it was the smallest outflow in the last ten weeks. It has clocked up its biggest three-month surge since August 2020, driven by strong emerging market flows and strong stock market breadth, BofA said.
European stock funds drew in $3.4 billion last week, the largest inflow since early 2022. Investors want exposure to the euro area as it looks increasingly likely it will avoid a recession. Investors poured in $3.4 billion into European equity funds over the past week, Bank of America said in its Flow Show note published Friday. But demand has been weaker than anticipated, leading to a roughly 70% crash from highs for natural gas prices. EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said this week there's "a chance to avoid a deep recession," for the bloc.
Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Hardika Singh | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The dash for cash on Wall Street is back on. Investors have added about $135 billion to global money-market funds over the past four weeks, according to EPFR data through Jan. 18. That is the best stretch since the four-week period ended May 2020, when those funds logged roughly $175 billion in net inflows.
Yet boring old bonds have just about kept pace, as investors rush to lock in healthy-seeming yields after one of the worst years ever for fixed-income returns. The Federal Reserve's historically aggressive tightening campaign last year gouged debt portfolios but quickly rebuilt the supply of safe yield on offer for today's buyers. I made the case for bonds' value from this perspective in a column here three months ago , just as Treasury yields were peaking. The good news is that "real yields," meaning yields above the market's implied outlook for inflation, remain positive. The American Association of Individual Investors' monthly asset allocation survey for December showed bonds at 14.3%, below the survey's long-term average of 16%.
Analysis: Move over TINA, it's time for TARA
  + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Reuters GraphicsIdanna Appio, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments, said that TINA was good for passive investors as it meant that equity prices went up because bond yields went down. "The risk free rate," he added, referring to core government bond yields, "actually gives you something." Bond funds recorded net inflows for six straight weeks until early January, BofA said, based on its analysis of EPFR data. "The end of TINA is very important," said Francesco Sandrini, head of multi-asset strategies at Amundi, Europe's largest fund manager. "You don’t need a bond bull market, you now have income," said Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at U.S. money manager DoubleLine.
Shifts in tones at big banks suggest they are warming up to Chinese equities, especially as the strong returns so far and the fear of missing out on more gains start to apply pressure. "This is still a long path and we remain very bullish on Chinese equities ...and also the currency," he said. "When the market goes up, naturally that will attract international investors to look at China again," said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at abrdn. Foreign investors bought a net 41 billion yuan ($6.06 billion) of China stocks via the China-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme so far this year, compared with 90 billion yuan of China stocks bought in all of 2022. They bought a net 35 billion yuan of China stocks in December.
During the wildest year for global markets since 2008, individual investors have been doubling down on stocks. Many professionals, on the other hand, appear to have bailed out. U.S. equity mutual and exchange-traded funds, which are popular among individual investors, have attracted more than $100 billion in net inflows this year, one of the highest amounts on record in EPFR data going back to 2000.
"Small joyless flows" as investors sell stocks and cash - Bofa
  + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Investors sold stocks and bought gold in the week to Wednesday, withdrawing $5.7 billion from equity funds, BofA Global Research said on Friday, a week of "small, joyless flows", as markets position for the approaching end of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. Both stocks and cash recorded outflows of $5.7 billion, in the week to Wednesday, while bond outflows stood at £0.1 billion and gold funds got a $65 million boost, BofA said, citing EPFR data. "Weekly Flows: inflow to gold funds of $65mn, outflow from bonds $0.1bn, cash $5.7bn, & stocks $5.7bn…small, joyless flows," BofA said. BofA private clients put cash into equities for the first time in 11 weeks, and bought bonds for the 41st week in a row, the report said. BofA analysts expect the U.S central bank to stop hiking rates in March 2023, but they say the uncertainty in the market is justified.
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LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Investors have withdrawn $316 billion from credit funds this year, unwinding all of the previous year's inflows, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday. In its latest note on fund flows, BofA said equities funds had seen inflows of $207 billion in 2022, below the "euphoric inflows" of the previous year. Equity funds suffered a $14.1 billion outflow in the largest exit in three months, BofA said, citing EPFR data. Cash funds attracted $31.1 billion of inflows and gold funds added $59 million, BofA added. In emerging markets, BofA said bonds had a 15th week of outflows, losing $500 million, while equities attracted $1.1 billion of inflows.
LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Equity funds suffered a $14.1 billion outflow in the week to Wednesday in the largest exit in three months, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday. U.S. equity funds saw an $16.2 billion outflow, the biggest since April, the latest flow data from BofA also showed. Bond funds also saw outflows, to the tune of $2.4 billion, while cash funds attracted $31.1 billion inflows and gold funds added $59 million, BofA said citing EPFR data. In its weekly note, BofA noted that outflows from credit funds in 2022 of $316 billion have unwound all the inflows of 2021. It added that while equity funds have seen inflows this year of some $207 billion, this was down from the "euphoric inflows" seen last year.
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Inflows into global equity funds hit their highest level in 35 weeks in the week to Wednesday, according to a report from Bank of America (BofA), as investor optimism brightened. Investors poured a net $22.9 billion into equities, BofA said, citing EPFR data, and $4.2 billion into bonds. They pulled $3.7 billion from cash funds and $300 million from gold. U.S. equity funds saw inflows just shy of $24 billion in the week to Wednesday, BofA said. Money flowed into emerging market (EM) equities for the fourth week running, at $1.9 billion.
Investors bought $2.6 billion of bonds in the week to Wednesday, BofA said, citing EPFR data. "Inflation shock" is over, but 'inflation stick' of briskly rising services and wage inflation is here to stay; inflation will come down but to remain above range past 20 years," BofA strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, said. Inflation shock, rates shock and recession shock defined the the 2022 bear narrative, Bofa said, adding that 2023 looks very different. "2023 bull narrative is 'peak CPI, peak Fed, peak yields, peak US dollar'; we say 'rent the pivot' as 'no recession, no rate cuts'," the bank's strategists said. BofA said U.S. 30-year Treasuries, small-cap industrials and resources, emerging market bonds, plus China/Japan and weak dollar plays were on its list.
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